If you are paying attention to the stock market you are watching the wrong thing

From Brad Setser…..

UPDATE: John Jansen reports Morgan Stanley’s credit spread has widened significantly and LIBOR is way way up. LIBOR may now be the rate that banks don’t lend to each other at, but the banks do need funding.

UPDATE 2: AIG’s bonds are also trading at Argentina-in-default levels, 33 cents on the dollar.

UPDATE 3: The New York Times suggests that if AIG doesn’t get federal money, it will fail on Wednesday. That is a stark choice: a two day no bailout policy, or the second failure of a large financial institution in a week.

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